♪ ♪ imus in the morning ♪ >> oh, what a difference a debate can make, romney gets a bounce. good monday morning, everyone, five days after the debate and

gallup gives mitt romney a 5 point rebound. there are 29 days to the election and rasmussen puts romney in the lead in florida and he has fresh numbers for us today. and there's no retreat. regular averages 4.66. the formerly golden state people, the drivers there are paying $100 a fillup. governor brown wants a cheaper, but dirtier gasoline blend. good news for socialists all over the world, hugo chavez wins in venezuela. they haven't run out of other people's money just yet. markets down, romney is called a liar and "varney & company" is about to begin.

>> good morning, "varney & company" viewers, today is monday, october the 8th. the big story less than 30 days from the election, let's see where the candidates are at the polls right now. gallup today, this poll for the

first three days after the debate. romney and obama tied at 47 among registered voters. before the debate. obama in this poll had a five point lead and mitt romney has swung back into the lead in the first post debate survey in the presidential race in florida and the latest rasmussen poll is likely voters and has romney two points ahead and scott rasmussen, he's going to joining us in our next hour with his brand new monday morning numbers. can romney hold on to or even extend his lead? find out, 10:30 this morning. and check us out on facebook, was last week's debate the major turning point in the election? log on, join that conversation please. gas prices, the spike in california levelling off, but prices have not started any kind of retreat just yet. the average for regular is up 50 cents, state wide in the past week an all time high, 4.66. governor brown has called on state regulators to allow the early sale of less expensive

winter blend gasoline in california, that's a measure that he said could bring down sky high prices, not sure whether that order had taken effect just yet. sports, drew brees breaks a 52-year-old nfl record and the new orleans saints quarterback threw a touchdown pass for the 48th straight game. johnnie unitas held the record and brees' coach sean payton, suspended by the nfl, but got special dispensation because brees asked for him. the first one of the year. whatever happened raising the level of political discourse. the dnc communications director calls mitt romney directly a liar. and congressman allen west joins us to talk about this and polls in his home state. him and the opening bell next.

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>> all right. a fair warning, everybody, when that opening bell sounds this monday morning, the stock market is going to go south. not by a long-- maybe, 40, 50 points, but we're expecting the drop we know we're going to see a drop in oil and gold as well. and let's deal with stocks for a second. why the decline in the opening bell this monday morning? well, this is the start of earnings week, earnings season, and all the reports suggest it's

going to be a very disappointing. could be the worst earnings season since 2009. and that have a direct bearing on stock prices and watch out. that's one of the of the big reasons why we'll see a market cline in the early going. and let's not forget, it's mid october and the dow industrials closed out friday and 13,600, it's not that far short of an all-time high, so, let's bear that in mind, even though we are indeed going to get the climb this morning, we've opened dead flat actually, down 6 points in the very, very early going, down 10, should be down about 40 or 50 in the first few minutes of business. i do want to go to nicole. we've got netflix in the news again today. this thing has been up and down and largely up. why is it up today. >> today, it's up almost 7% right now, after a great month of october so far. and this was an analyst upgrade, mortgage stanley upgrades netflix to an overweight and

talking about the potential global growth of video streaming and last week was some week for netfl netflix, up 22%. >> day trader made a killing. dow industrials up 40 poin. down 40 points. and the price of gold, that's down today, not a lot, but it's back to 1773. that move towards 1800 clearly backing off this monday morning. and the socialist revolution continues in venezuela. they he voted for six more years of hugo chavez, he won the presidential race, 54-45. that wasn't official results. he survived the biggest test of his 14 years in power, despite inflation, food shortages, rising crime and blatant

political-- six more years for dear hugo. let's get back to the november election here. no response from the white house on this comment from the dnc communications, here is what he said about mitt romney's performance in denver. >> plenty of people pointed out what a liar mitt romney is and was last night. i mean, if he was talking, he was -- if he was speaking last night. he was lying. stuart: oh, dear. joining the company from florida is republican congressman allen west. congressman you've been the subject of personal attacks. the romney campaign responds to the word liar saying it's sour grapes for the president's debate loss. is that a strong enough come back for you? >> well, good morning, stuart, i will tell you first of all, i think it's a very bad path for the obama administration to go down and also the democrat party. when you think about we still have a lot of questions unanswered about libya, when you have a president's administration that sends out a u.n. ambassador susan rice

talking about a video, when you have a president that stands before the united nations, six times he referred to a video, never said anything about a terrorist attack. and we have the special forces lt. colonel that's come forward and we know now that security was denied 30 days out before that attack occurred. so, i don't think that they should be throwing around the word liar too often, but it's kind of like in a football game when you get taken out behind the wood shed and shellacked pretty bad, blaming the referees or blaming that the grass was too high or the other team cheated. you have to accept the fact that you got beat en. swacked, can you-- >> that's a sec football kind of word that you can use. stuart: all right, congressman. and i've got another topic for you, the vice-presidential debate is surely going to bring up medicare and paul ryan's reform plan.

now you've got a florida district. how is medicare reform, the ryan plan, romney plan, how is it playing in your district? >> it's playing well because we have an open line of communications and no change for our current seniors or anyone of 55 years of age about to become a senior, one of the things that no one is talking about is just last week monday, another new provision of the affordable care act took effect on our seniors and our hospitals which says that any senior that returns to a hospital within a 30 day period, that hospital will receive a fine. so, think about the position that you're putting our hospitals in. think about the position you're putting our seniors in with the reimbursable rates out of cms and health and human services administration getting lower and lower and many doctors that are dropping their seniors off with medicare coverage. as you well know, this was something that we were told the affordable care act was 940 billion and now it's up to 1.7 trillion. stuart: they're going to come

back at you and say it's about your system. they're going to replace this basic right with a voucher system. and they're going to demagogue this thing to death. and my question is about the presidential debate. joe biden has a very good way of making an appeal. i mean, he's very-- he can speak in a very appealing fashion to middle america, i think he may come on pretty strong. and i suspect he could win this debate. >> well, i don't think he can win this debate. i think that you have to take a very serious, and say he's a crafty person, but he was absolutely right when he said that the middle class, middle income families are buried under the last four years, when you think about median family income they dropped 4%, equates to a little over $4,000, when you talk about the black community, it's 11% that dropped median family income. so the policies, the tax policies, the regulatory policies that this administration and their sense of crony capitalism, they're the ones that are causing these small businesses to close up.

when you you look at dodd frank and the fact that it's crushing power small community bank. that affects the small businesses, so if they want to come back and try to demagogue that medicare, that health care issue, i think they're going to find out that a lot of people have researched it and know the truth and not going down the path of the medi-scare. >> shwacked, i'll remember that. and i'll tell you about stories number one, president obama holds high priced fundraisers in hollywood. the money really rolled in, you're going to hear the joke na the president told about himself at one of those fundraisers and also the tracking poll from scott rasmussen, important stuff because these are fresh numbers, post debate numbers that you have never seen before coming right up for you. and back to nicole, united health spending a lot of money.

where is the stock? >> that's right, another big deal in the health insurance business, united health is going to buy 90% of amil, a brazilian company pan the u.s. is in the challenging business and going abroad. it's the third one of its kind. united health making this deal and seeing the other names, aetna, sought coventry health for 5.6 billion and the other one wellpoint, a purchase. stuart: we'll give it to you fast this monday morning, oil is down, gold is down. stocks are down and time is money. watch out, nicole, in 30 seconds, here is what we've got for you today. how convenient, a survey of 60,000 households shows 873,000 people found work and the jobless rate therefore came down to 7.8%. we will talk to economist doug holtz-eakin about what people

are calling the real jobless rate. that's at the top of the hour. american airlines, labor disputes, loose seats, delays, cancellations, would you fly american? with pr like this, can american stay in business? we will ask seth kaplin from airline weekly. and earning season kicks off tomorrow. alcoa traditionally the first out of the box, but some analysts are expecting this to be the worst profit performer since 2009. we'll talk to keith fitz-gerald about that. the dow is down 48. send your e-mails right now varney@foxbusiness.com. seven early movers this monday morning, disappointing forecast from the optics company, oclaro. and the company sell don sees higher profits. and the retailer, wet seal losing merchandising ahead to

competitor true religion. up a penny. and the flying pigs people, zynga cut their outlook on friday, where is it now? drop last week, down a fraction at 2.46. that means its ipo is down 8% from the ipo price. and facebook gets more than 10% of money from fees paid by zynga and facebook is at $20 a share. general motors says chinese sales up close to 2% over last year and gm now at $24 a share. and here is another big name you know, it's honda and it's recalling 489,000 crv suv's in the u.s. and europe. and there's a fire risk, apparently and honda stock is at 30. all right, the dow is now down 51. most people, you've heard it before. small businesses are the engine of growth in this country. we'll tell you just how many of them think president obama is actually holding them back. [ male announcer ] how do you trade?

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0t[h7ç another reason more investors are saying... you see us, at the start of the day. on the company phone list that's a few names longer.

you see us bank on busier highways. on once empty fields. everyday you see all the ways all of us at us bank are helping grow our economy. lending more so companies and communities can expand, grow stronger and get back to work. everyday you see all of us serving you, around the country, around the corner. us bank. >> as expected in the early going, the first 14 minutes of business, it's earnings season and they're not likely to be-- hence the modest lost. the price of oil is below 90 a barrel and 89.29 at this moment. take a look at this, please, a new survey found that 70% of small business owners think president obama's policies are making it harder to do business. and joining the company is ed

with trip scott. a law firm that those entrepreneurs and companies in south florida. welcome to the program. >> thank you. >> let's get this clear now, your business, your law firm works with small businesses and entrepreneurs. >> right. >> they come to you and say, hey, i've got a legal problem, a government problem. that happens. >> all the time. stuart: i want a list, what's are the problems they're running up against or into with the obama administration. >> first, the president doesn't appreciate the entrepreneur. the comments you didn't build it, that goes to the heart of it. let's talk specifics. specifically regulations, obamacare is a big heavy burden that was thrown on the entrepreneurs desk and saying, now comply. but no one read the bill when it was passed, 2000 page plus and now all the regulators are at it writing regulations around that bill. stuart: it doesn't apply to businesses with fewer than 50 employees. >> yeah, but look, small businesses are 50 plus as well

and businesses who have 20 or 30 employees want to be 50 plus and that prevents them from being 50 plus. who would want to hire that 50th employee to fit into that box and have to comply with those regulations. stuart: so, okay, is the problem with small businesses and obamacare, that they don't know what rules and regulations, if they've got more than 50 employees, they don't know, is that it. >> they don't know and they don't know the uncertainty is what kills the entrepreneurial spirit. stuart: so, your you own a law firm and they come to you. we try to work through it with them. we're happy for the the business, here is the point. small businesses can't afford to have a cadre of lobbyists and lawyers every decision point they make and the problem is that's a cost to to go business then. they have to pay to come to me and ask me, what about this regulation, how do i comply? how do i get this license, ed? how do i get. how do i comply with obamacare and how do i comply with some,

how do i get a loan from a bank? you know, so, those things. stuart: understood, problem one, obamacare. problem two? >> taxes, taxes big time. the idea of rolling back or pulling back on the bush tax cuts for the top end of the scale impacts small businesses, because, remember, most of those people filed through a sub s. their companies are paid through personal returns. stuart: so if their personal rate of income tax is 35% and the small business makes a profit, that profit is taxed at 35%, so their personal tax. >> right, it flows through the personal tax return. stuart: they don't know whether that rate goes up or stays still or it if romney wins, comes down. >> corrects, correct. stuart: what do you tell them. >> uncertainly is killer in small business. stuart: they come to you for a solution and you don't have a solution. >> i don't.

a lot of this is uncertainty. 3200 new regulations from the federal government last year and we're on course now close to over 5,000 this year, that's an unbelievable burden. stuart: okay, i've got obamacare, i've got taxes, uncertainty in both and number three? >> they're just afraid, afraid that this government. this federal wants to intrude in their life so what you've had is the power shift from elected officials, from local, state and local governments to regulators, and faceless, nameless folks. >> wait a minute, af got it, but why would they come to you to be charged? you're going to sarg them. >> you bet. stuart: and you're going to tell them there's uncertainty in obamacare and uncertainty in taxes and you're afraid of what's coming down the pike, you can't do anything about those three areas, what are you charging them? >> i'm charging them, but put aside my interests, stuart. we can help them navigate through some of that, but the uncertainty is still there. i cannot pull the uncertainty away to allow for my client to

feel comfortable enough to expand his business. >> you've got your finger on the pulse of florida. who wins florida? >> romney. stuart: definitely? >> absolutely. stuart: why do you say that real fast? >> two things, organizationally the republican party is stronger state wide down there because all the governor and the legislature and romney has to work hard. secondly, i think there's a hidden issue here that the-- obama's position with respect to israel, and his kind of frosty relationship with benjamin netanyahu, some democratic older jewish voters particularly in south florida and remember for every one who switches for romney, that's a two-for story. ed, thank you. >> thank you. stuart: it's 9:49. this is the time when we give you the gold report. where are we this monday morning? down, but not much. 1773 is the price per ounce right now. president obama goes to hollywood.

more high-priced fundraisers. there's something different this time, the president mocked his own debate performance. we'll tell you and show you, but first, doesn't everyone send greeting cards in the mail anymore? is the internet killing that? charles payne, lori rothman, they're joining me talking about greeting cards, the internet. ♪ in a letter and sealed with a kiss ♪ ♪ yes, it's going to be a cold lonely summer ♪

>> is thises this is a rather strong word. some say the internet has ruined the greeting card industry. and hall mark says the number of cards is down 1 billion over the last ten years, it's to receive e-mail, but not as much as going to the mailbox and getting a card. that would be my opinion in some respects, i like letters, care for cards. >> i do, too, i'm old-fashioned i love reading the card and reading the handwritten. and it's easy to fire off an e-mail in a casual way. the formal occasions or milesto

milestone, charles. stuart: let knee interrupt. we have a story with charles payne. this man was at the owners box with the redskins, with bill o'reilly and brett baier of countless reputation and he gets the news he's just become a grandfather for the first time. congratulatio congratulations. charles: and they give you the little white towel and i'm glad they gave me one. i needed it. i didn't wave it around, but put it to use. stuart: how did you get into the owners box. i know you're a famous guy, but-- >> the owner is nice, and bought my book about eight months ago and sent it to me and had me sign it and a nice note and sent it back and that's it. stuart: congratulations. charles: and one of the happiest days of my life. >> happy and healthy. >> everybody is happy and healthy. stuart: you're only getting started. you've got one, i've got six jiv i've got work to do at least my

kids do. stuart: mitt romney has a bump in the polls, the latest from scott rasmussen, has the governor been able to hold onto the lead. coming up in a few minutes. and president obama holds more star-studded fundraisers in hollywood overed weekend and the president laughed off his poor debate performance in denver. was he admitting defeat? we'll play you the sound bite. you can decide. when we got married.

i had three kids. and she became the full time mother of three. it was soccer, and ballet, and cheerleading, and baseball. those years were crazy. so, as we go into this next phase, you know, a big part of it for us is that there isn't anything on the schedule.

>> here we go this monday morning. new at ten on "varney & company," the post debate bounce is reflected in the polls. the latest rasmussen tracking poll has them tied at 48. new at ten more star-studded hollywood fundraiser for the president. this time he jokes about his poor performance in the denver debate. we'll tell you exactly what he said in just a couple of moments. to the big board, still down 40 points on very low volume early this monday morning. here is our company, lori rothman is with us, charles payne, new grandfather, that is and nicole petallides on the floor of the new york stock exchange. nicole, i've got to go to you first, and wal-mart is now at a new all time high? >> that's right. wal-mart dow component is at a new all time high. it's up over 25% this year and it was the stir this morning, with another dow card, american

expression and wal-mart teaming up with a pre-paid card and this is obviously, we know wal-mart customers, many of them are low income and the card will have all the features of a debit card and the bloomberg is the result. >> you know, it's intriguing, nicole, it wasn't that long ago that you and i were kicking around wal-mart and the doorsteper stop, it was always around 50, 55, and always ther , suddenly, a break out analysis. >> and it's up this year. >> a company of that size, that performance, world's largest retailer. a 25% run up in the stock is a big deal. >> indeed. >> the dow is down 42 points, a half hour into this monday morning trading session. let's get to the new at 10 for you, the new at 10 stories for you, the latest daily tracking poll from rasmussen reports, has mitt romney with a one point lead over president obama.

and romney tied with president obama-- let me get this right. the one you're looking at, the monday morning tracking poll. 48-48, yesterday, mitt romney had a 1 point advantage. today it's all tied up. the company, that still means that governor romney has had a post debate bounce. and gave him a little, but it's still there. >> it is, as campaign at its finest and you see the two candidates running neck and neck the debate was fantastic for romney, the jobs reports, everybody looks at the unemployment number and we look under the hood and we know the real unemployment rate is close to 15% and the underemployment rate. anybody that looks at unemployment as below as 8% may know that that's politically-- >> i didn't know whether the latest poll tied at 48 includes people who were polled after that jobs number came out. i suspect that it's not a full post jobs number report. but nonetheless, he's still got

momentum. >> he's got momentum, but the thing we see, no matter what happens for either candidate the moves are short-lived. it was a catalyst, no doubt about it, but where is the next catalyst from either guy. 7.8% might help, but nowhere near that drubbing that president obama took, and we've got the vice-presidential debate this week and maybe that was close are than the last two presidential debates and they're very important. >> as of now, dead heat. all across the country, the national average, dead heat. >> i like that, and by the way, we still ask scott rasmussen in about a half hour, how many people were polled after the jobs report. how big a factor is the jobs report in that time. >> and we got the twitter feed this morning, as a matter of fact, and he said this is three day tracking poll so those numbers are the latest since the debate. >> so they wouldn't include the jobs numbers? >> not the jobs numbers, but the debate performance. >> and definitely the debate. and we've got a surprise drop in the unemployment rate friday, mainly because of the household survey, that would be 60,000

people surveyed, and from that, miraculously, we found that 873,000 people had joined the work force. and at "varney & company" we want to focus on what we call the real unemployment rate, which is 14.7%, when you take into account the unemployed and the underemployed. that's what you got. 14.7%. and joining the company from washington, douglas holtz-eakin, a former director of the budget office under george w. bush. welcome back to the program, good to see you again. >> thank you. stuart: i think that 7.8% unemployment rate, and the miraculous discovery of 873,000 people working, i think that paints the wrong picture of the unemployment situation in america today. you agree with me? do you focus on 14-7? >> the 873,000 jobs created in the household survey are at odds with every other piece of data we have about september in the

united states. it looks more and more as you stare at it, this is just a statistical fluke, there weren't 873,000 jobs created there weren't-- it's better to to set aside that number, look as you do the broader number, 14.7%, look the at the payroll survey, 114,000 jobs created and it looks like more of the same. the economy drifting side ways, and not falling off the cliff, but not going anywhere. >> what kind of new jobs are we creating? that report says over 500,000 part-time jobs and i don't know what kind of part-time jobs they were. but 114,000 full-time jobs reported by employers. and seems to me that this is not really adding to the amount of money that americans earn. >> we don't know job by job, the so-called quality of the job. the high quality jobs, low quality jobs, but we know that in this recovery, since june of 2009. we've seen anemic growth in real inflation adjusted take home

pay, disposable income and it's one of the hallmarks of this recovery and those who have had jobs, haven't seen a raise and haven't seen an enhanced standard of living and september's growth showed some growth in hourly earnings, but it doesn't show that 2 or 3 percentage point growth in income they need for personal recovery. >> they say they're headed in the right direction, what do you say to that? >> well, we're going north and not south, that's good. and we're doing it in a really, really disturbingly slow pace and i think a lot of evidence they could do better. averagi averaging we could have averaged north that have with policies at that took off the table, the spector of a 440 million dollars tax increase at the end of the year that gave us entitlement in tax reforms and the threat of a big financial crisis and certainly, i think that the level of regulatory burden has become one of the you know, sort

of recurring themes of recovery. stuart: we've got one more jobs report before the election, that would be the friday before the election on the following tuesday. you expect a big revision in those numbers that we saw last friday? >> well, if you believe, as i do, that most of the jump in those jobs, the 873,000 was a mirage and that will go away and drop from 8.1 to 7.8% would also go away. so i wobble comfortable predicting a jump many up in the unemployment rate. that would be no more real than the jump down, but on average growing slowly. stuart: douglas holtz-eakin. thank you. >> what do you make of that. you look like you were bursting. charles: i agree with him. i think he was being too niles. i saw a lot of red flags in this report. 104,000 private sector jobs versus 215 the same period. 600,000 increase in part-time

and 16,000 jobs lost in manufacturing another month in a row manufacturing jobs are fading, to me they're all red flags. 1.3% gdp you add it up we're moving backward not forward. >> he made a great point the household survey how they gom to 873,000 new jobs added. charles: i'm saying that my hunch is that they asked the question differently, that's all. stuart: well, now. charles: i think they asked the question differently. stuart: i don't believe they cooked the book, i think it's oh, so convenient the number 873,000. charles: maybe cooking the books is a harsh term, but i think they found a way to manipulate the numbers not necessarily by shenanigans, but asking the question differently from the three previous months. and it's just a hunch. stuart: statistics, to be statistically viable you've got to ask the same question. charles: and they always modify and tweak all of this kind of stuff, all the different agencies and something has to-- it's a weird time, anomaly.

and this one probably more important than the next jobs report. by that time a lot of people would have voted already and a lot of people would have made up their minds already. this was the report that had to come in under 8% and it did. stuart: and i talked to a lot of people in texas, a lot of people i was talking to, they were very skeptical. charles: there's a lot of apolitical people cynical about government in general who say that's par for the course. >> i was going to say you don't want to trash the way that people make money as long as it's legal. to your point, charles, again, it's that you have to be skeptical. you asked the question how they are he' going about the household survey and doesn't match up. the company called, are you creating jobs, only 114,000 say, yes, we are. and 800, almost 900,000 people say, yes, i have an income. charles: one other point. 7.8 number if it's all true wasn't good much it's not a great number for america, the number when it comes to the great power of america and formerly great job creation

engine we were. stuart: there are still fewer jobs today than in 2007. flat-out fewer. >> we forget that full employment is 4%, the new normal we're lucky if we get 100,000 nonfarm payroll. stuart: and i want to go back to nicole, netflix going higher. >> looking good. number two best performer on the s&p 500. how it's faring this second. why is this? well, today you've got an upgrade from morgan stanley upgrading from an overweight to an equal weight and the new price target 85 bucks and a few gains and the growth potential was the number one part of the note, but they also noted that amazon is not intense competition for netflix at all. so, you see here, it's jumping, and it's $72 here, last friday on the 28th of september, it's 54 bucks. >> whoa. >> wait a minute, the 20th of september, it's 54 and now it's 70 and change, whatever it is. >> yeah. i should note one thing, remember, you said this, too,

last summer it was $300. stuart: correct. it was 350 or something-- all right. nicole, thank you very much indeed. the dow industrials down 39 points kind of a go nowhere monday morning thus far. the other new at 10 story for you, president obama attending a high priced hollywood fundraiser last night. celebrities showed up. george clooney, stevie wonder and katy perry. >> everybody here is incredible professionals and they just performed flawlessly. and night after night. i can't always say the same. >> a reference to his debate performance, isn't that right, charles. admission that he lost. charles: absolutely, it's universally acknowledged that the president lost and you know, that's probably the best way he can go about it, but when you're in, basking in the glow of that

celebrity and all that jazz, it's easy to do that. stuart: and you have the music, the one that we reported on 6,000 people. $250 each, i think. >> and this is what i found rg as the foray in hollywood he's calling it, because obviously a maximum you can donate to a campaign, but no maximum amount of money you can donate to one of the super pacs, so, i think that by holding these small groups outside of like, just before or after these concerts and these big speeches by the celebrities. stuart: well, you know, that concert had 6,000 people attending, $250 a pop. >> and then the thousands that the big dollar donors he's meeting with more privately. stuart: yes, he held 150 people went to a wolfgang puck restaurant and paid $25,000 each. i can't do the math quickly, but an awful lot of money. >> a lot of cash. stuart: and then he had a private meeting at katzenburg's house with dozens of people there, including bill clinton. i don't know whether to raise cash or strategy.

charles: it's a one-two punch on that one. and kept the press in the garage on that one. my man, this is what you have to do. and jeffrey katzenburg one of the most creative persons in america, of course, here is the thing, the media has worked really that ared to get us to do something that their experts in hollywood, suspend disbelief and i think that's the case. you have to make america believe disbelieve how awful the economy is in the next 30 days, this is how you do it. stuart: before we go on who wins the vice-presidential debate. >> in comedy or in paints. stuart: according to public opinion, next morning, look, that happened, who won? who won? >> do we pity the affable-- oh, paul ryan hands down. charles: i say paul ryan, but agree with lori, but bide and going to be-- >> i wouldn't be surprised at joe biden. he can communicate with middle america very well.

he does it well. >> very middle america, stuart. stuart: and prone to gaffes, but he can-- >> i relate to him all the time watch out. stocks maybe on an upswing, but it might not last. earnings season starts tomorrow. the predictions not good. keith fitz-gerald joins us on that next. [ male announcer ] what if you had thermal night-vision goggles, like in a special opsission? you'd spot movement, gather intelligence with minimal collateral damage. but rather than neutralizing enemies in their sleep, you'd be targeting stocks to trade. well, that's what trade architect's heat maps do. they make you a trading assassin.

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>> the gas price spike in california have leveled off and prices have not started to go back down yet. the average price of regular is up. incredible 50 cents in just a week. a new all-time high is the average, is 4.66. and calling on regulators to allow the early sale of less expensive dirtier winter blend gasoline, could bring down sky high prices. and the aerospace company bae didn't like the groups proposed 45 billion dollars merge wer eads. concerns include poor terms, lack of strategy, britain, france, germany are trying to save the deal. honda recalling about 489,000 crv crossovers, 2002-2006 model years in the u.s., europe and africa and electrical switch on the driver's side door could melt and cause a fire. the stock is at 30. we'll be back.

. stuart: the detroit police department has a message to people looking at visiting the city. enter at your own risk. over the weekend 400 police officers passed out flyers saying because of cuts to the police force detroit is more dangerous and they say the cops are overworked, understaffed and fear their lives on a daily basis. that sending the wrong kind of message. doesn't it. reports of loose seats on american airlines flights, these

are a few incidents, why would anyone fly american, they're at war with the unions. how will it hurt the company? we'll ask an airline expert at 10:45 this morning. as you know, earnings season kicks off tomorrow. alcoa is traditionally the first to report right after the bell tomorrow. some analysts think this is going to be the worst profit performance for three years by american kms. joining us now from portland, oregon, is keith fitz-gerald with money map press. and what do you make of it, suppose the analysts the great people are right, that it's the worst earnings season since 2009. does that mean the stock market is going to come down. >> you know, it should mean that the stock market is going to come down. what i think is really means is this: there's a far bigger question here, if the analysts are right and earnings stink we're going to find out once and for all, whether this market is all about ben bernanke and club fed. stuart: that's right, because traditionally, the profits of the american corporations are

the baseline for the stock price. profits up, stock up. generally that's the way it works. so, generally, you would say profits down a bit or not looking that good. so, stocks down. you're right. ben has threatened, not threatened, he has promised to print unlimited amount of money as long as it seems to get the unemployment rate, way, way down. so i guess you could say that earnings this time around don't matter as much. do you agree with that. >> yeah, i do, a fine line at that we've got to walk here. companies deliberately bring down earnings and now it's on a pre-announcement basis on the theory that if they surprise later. they in fact induce a boost and it's like betting on a horse after the race. stuart: you know, i'm a small investor, an individual investor and i hear that ben bernanke is going to print up a storm again, trillions of dollars may be, i'm going into the stock market because i think that some of that money is going to come down, trickling down into stocks and i'm going to go to gold because i think that inflation is going to go up, so gold will

be a nice hedge. i'm not so sure that i'll put more money into bonds. >> you know, that's an area that we're looking at as a reversal. i would not leave out energy either. and regardless of the global growth story, energy is one of the things that people need and look at the gas prices. they've got to have it so the prices are going up and earnings are going up regardless of what happens to the economy in six, nine months. >> i think about housing and real estate. mortgage rates, going to keep those things way, way down. what i'm saying is, if you've got money and you invest it, then he's going to help you, if you're part of the broader economy, you're struggling to get along at the lower end of the income scale and don't have much to invest, you don't have a lot. >> pretty much. we can't just leave it right there. [laughter] >> let's get this clear. if i, as an interviewer, i rely on you to come up with at least one full statement in response to any statement that i might

make, so can you rephrase that? >> yes, i can, you have to be in this market because ben bernanke wants you to be in this market. inflation is directly to the stock market and you can't afford to sit this out. bonds are terrible investment, and companies in fact are still earning, particularly global diversified ones and you've got opportunity to resource and opportunities for big financials right now those are probably the bright spot in earnings. stuart: that's better. you left me high and dry with a short response, and he's finished already. keith fitz-gerald, always good. yet, again, my colleague to the left, grandfather, is bursting to say something, say it. charles: i agree with everything keith said except for the big banks, and i look at gdp report and something is not right with the big banks, bank of america, citi --. stuart: it's regulation, dodd frank. charles: no one talked about it

changed the accounting rules market 2009. stock market reversed and bank earnings reversed and opague as they've ever been, mid sized banks, regional. stuart: i would take that especially from a new grandfather. especially who sat in the redskins owners box with the elite. charles: i visit the elite from final to time, that's all. stuart: exactly. >> you guys make me feel young, i love being here. stuart: hugo chavez. charles: talk about something that was rigged. that was rigged. that was rigged. the other guy won. that was rigged. stuart: he's elect today six more years. why did the people of venezuela votes for their own ruin. charles: they didn't. stuart: that's next. follow the wings.

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>> it's kind of like a football game you get taken out behind the wood shed and get shwhacked pretty bad. and you don't say that the grass is too high, and the fact that

you got beat en. shwhacked. >> s-c-h--- >> i can't spell it, but pronounce it. and that was the response to mitt romney being called a liar over the weekend. and that's what you get, shwhacked. and nicole, carmax shares. >> i enjoy when you use the word shwhacked, and don't take any smack. carmax, we're looking at carmax, the great performer on the s&p 500 today and looking at it because. stuart: tt research wrote here that the retail sales that we've been seeing, the same store use unit, retail sales are likely to outpace analysts estimates so that's some positive comments there for carmax. stuart: hold on one second, stay right there. what are you saying about carmax. charles: the ceo spoke at the

democratic national convention and if i was him i probably would have as well. obama put out 1200 other car dealers. you get rid of 1200 of my competitors, i've got your back, baby. stuart: and harley davidson, they are he' higher and how much? >> looking at harley davidson, 5.7% gain for september. it's clearly outpacing the losses in august and rbc and citigroup, positively talking about the fact they're relatively optimistic about floor traffic and one has a 52 price target and the other-- >> if you drive a harley do you vote for president obama or governor romney? >> i have no idea. can i say congratulations to charles for the new addition to the payne family tree? >> i thought you were going to congratulate him for being in the owners box with the-- >> what. >> the grand business. >> thank you, nicole. >> thank you very much, nicole, appreciate it. stuart: okay.

six more years, he yes, that's how long the people of venezuela will have to keep on suffering. and they voted for it. here is my take on hugo chavez, he won despite inflation, shortages, crime and corruption, not to mention a near tyrannical record, voters gave him a comfortable victory, 54 to 45. amazing how people will vote for their own ruin. and venezuela should be wealthy, it has giant oil reserves, instead it's sinking into massive poverty because of the dictatorial and socialist rule of hugo chavez, so why, why did the people vote him in again? because they were bought, bought politically and financially. first, chavez appealed to the poor, he's their champion he and socialists, portray the masses as victims of the rich and imperialistic dominated world.

apparently that line of approach worked. and the people were bought financially, too. heavily subsidized gas and food could be quite attractive. chavez made sure his supporters got the basics cheap and rewarded his cronies with lucrative licenses and contracts. i guess venezuelans think that the gravy train can keep on rolling. it couldn't. oil production is declining, foreign exchange is running short. there are electricity blackouts and that cheap food isn't always available. there's a lesson here. like all socialists, chavez is running out of other people's money. it's the same the world over. gifts to people and they'll often vote for you, but in the end, the money's gone. [ male announcer ] this is the age of knowing what you're made of.

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order now, and get this document shredder, a $29 value, free! call or go online now. [♪...] >> tens of thousands of people marching in the streets in 56 spanish cities yesterday protesting cuts. they say the cuts will only make the spanish economy worse. spain is experiencing record high unemployment. the youth unemployment rate in spain is over 50%. go back to the markets here. global growth concerns weighing on gold and especially oil this morning. joining us from chicago is larry with xlp alternatives. oil has dropped below 90 a

barrel. even though ben bernanke is printing up a storm and so is japan and europe and the chinese are joining in, i have to conclude that oil below 90 is a signal of maybe a global recession coming? >> it could be, stuart, but i think the bigger picture than that. let's keep in mind that oil maintenance is done right now. oil supplies are high. what's bigger than that refinery margins, outside of california are higher now than they were six months ago so we're seeing oil walk down and it's not going down as fast as we like to see. it might be a sign of the global recession, but i think the picture might be bigger than that right now. >> and there's no complication from the iran, israel, american situation, that seems to be dare i say, calmed down a little, but that takes a, some, something out of the price, doesn't it? >> it does. but it seems like just like you said, it's probably taking a back seat to everything else right now. right now we're not finding demand in the market. there's a little bit excess

supply and with margins being as high as they are, expect gasoline to go down maybe 30 to 40 cents in the next six months. >> you're holding off with the good stuff. are you saying that gas is down 30 to 40 cents, a gallon in the next six months? >> i do. i do. >> wow. >> and that's no big deal, because gasoline was 50 cents lower a gallon this time last year, so it's not a big surprise, i mean it's not a big present, but i think it will be nice and what happens our margins are higher and kept gas so stubbornly high, and north see oil and maintenance going on on the north sea, it kept oil high and right now, a perfect storm and margins are higher and more supply coming in and i do see gasoline being walked down 30 to 40 cents in the next six months. >> you're better to leave the most important thing should be the very first thing you say and 30 to 40% crop in gasoline is a big deal. thank you instead. we appreciate it. >> you're welcome. stuart: let's get back to the

november election, everybody wants to get back to the november election, i know you do. the latest rasmussen tracking poll has president obama and mitt romney tied 48 each. scott rasmussen from rasmussen reports is in new jersey. scott, welcome back. those are theery latest numbers released just today, 48-48. yesterday, it was romney 49-president obama 48. is governor romney losing a little of the bounce he got from the debates? >> a little bit. there's certainly been a bounce in consumer confidence since friday's jobs report, that's helping the president a little bit. in fact, the number of people who think the economy is getting worse has fallen by 10 points following that jobs report. stuart: oh, so that the jobs report, is that factored into that number which we just gave everyone, 48-48. >> yes, they, it is. stuart: so it had an impact then? >> it did have an impact, but i

want to talk about the larger picture. if we go back over the last 100 days of tracking, and get rid of the bounces and the different competing news stories, these two men have been within two points of each other, 72 days of 100. within 3 points of each other, 89 days out of 100. this race is very close and when we talk about momentum shifting, it means from a narrow lead for one guy to a narrow lead for the other and with four weeks to go, dead even. way too close to call, both nationally and in the important swing states. >> in your experience of presidential he elections in the past, have you ever known anything so close for so long right immediately before the election? >> this has been unusual. when president bush ran for reelection, he was up by 3 right after john kerry wrapped up the nomination and he won by just under 3 points. president obama was up by 5, when he wrapped up the nomination, he won by 7. in this case, we are seeing some shifting back and forth because the fundamentals suggest it's a

very close race. stuart: as of this moment, you can't call it, can you? >> there's no way to call it. in ohio, the president's up by a point. in florida romney is up two. in colorado, iowa, virginia, they're all very, very close. the next jobs report, friday before the election,ould have an impact. governor romney's making a foreign policy speech, the foreign policy has not been a big issue in the campaign, but could have an impact and there are more debates. stuart: all right. dead even. that's where we have to leave it. and you really are in the right line of business, scott rasmussen, you really are. american airlines is in a major labor dispute with its pilots union and dealing with the the loose seats and there's another issue for you. why would anyone fly america right now? why would you? we'll deal with it next. bob...

oh, hey alex. just picking up some, brochures, posters copies of my acceptance speech. great! it's always good to have a backup plan, in case i get hit by a meteor. wow, your hair looks great. didn't realize they did photoshop here. hey, good call on those mugs. can't let 'em see what you're drinking. you know, i'm glad we're both running a nice, clean race. no need to get nasty. here's your "honk if you had an affair with taylor" yard sign. looks good. [ male announcer ] fedex office. now save 50% on banners.

>> would you believe this, wal-mart stock hit an all-time high. a result of the the pre-paid shopper car with american express. pre-paid card is called blue bird. it's for customers who often do not have traditional bank accounts. good news, up goes the stock. and morgan stanley upgraded netflix from overweight to equal weight and it has some meaning

because netflix is up again, just look at this. netflix shares are up right now. six bucks, 10%. a gas spike in california leveled off, but prices have not stopped yet. the average price for gas went up 60 cents in the past week and the new all time high regular, 4.66 the average in california. the governor there, brown, yep, gary brown called on regulators to allow the early is a sale of less expensive winter blend dirty gasoline and he tried to bring sky high prices down. let's see how he does.

>> let's check with nicole, we saw apple stock is down today and she's about to appear on the box on the right side. apple stock is down $12 per share, i don't know what the immediate reason for that is, i'm sure there is he' some kind of development. do you have a reason for me, nicole? >> i do. on the bloomberg terminal. talking about the unit there over in china, and the disputes that have been going on there, the labor disputes. and this is the second one. last time they had a labor dispute we did see apple stock drop and we're seeing it again today. and it has stopped the production of some apple products and i don't know how briefly or for how long, but it doesn't bowed well. >> and book off a little if you've got labor troubles in your factory from china. thank you very much indeed. american airlines hoping to get

service back to normal this week after loose seats grounded 48 of boeing 747's, the bankrupt airline, it's in bankruptcy. it's canceled and delayed hundreds of flights. and joining us with airline weekly,set, let's get the big picture. first of all, i'm wondering whether american can keep going as a viable airline. it's at war with its unions, it's in bankruptcy and it's not -- it hasn't been profitable in years. can it keep going? >> absolutely. no question. it's seen better days, that's clear, but it's getting its costs in line as we speak and taken on unions and gotten voluntary concessions and it's getting costs down and that's one of the big problems it has. uncompetitive costs in a very competitive industry and it has revenue issues it will need to

address, but it's a viable airline and nowhere near lliqui. >> it's viable in its current size or does it have to trim, trim, trim, and get back to a solid base? >> viable, yes, the question is whether it's ideal as it is and slimmed down, maybe stop doing a few things that don't work, other on the other hand, perhaps merge with u.s. airways, which everybody knows is interested in perhaps buying americans. a lot of option that is some might position better than it is now. and one of the things, if i had a ticket on american airlines and i'm worried about the seats coming loose or delays in cancellations, one of the things that stop me from changing airlines, i pay a massive consolation fee if i want to get out of that airline and go state police else, a cancellation fee, i'm kind of locked in, aren't i.

>> it's important, the short-term versus the long-term. candidly, if i had to get somewhere this week on time to an important meeting and i had another option, i would probably try to pick that other option. in the longer term, we've seen these kinds of situations at other airlines in the past and they don't typically last all that long. for perspective, we ran a cover story three weeks ago how united was the least reliable airline. and far less reliable than american, and quickly things can change. but absolutely, right now. and you know, i would be looking for other options, but they certainly in the next day or so, and american is less reliable than its peers. >> i made a mistake, it's the 757 that were grounded and that's correct, 757's, and here is the last question, how many years before american makes serious profits? >> oh, well, i think if it emerges from bankruptcy with the new cost structure right now. it will be a profitable airline.

probably not the leader in profitability, you know, if we look at delta, for example, their revenue picture, now, they went through bankruptcy several years ago and merged with northwest and got the costs in line and did things on the revenue side that american is now just starting to do. the u.s. airline industry at the moment is actually doing well. the more profitable airlines are producing margins that won't make most jealous, but again, an airline like delta, up near double digit profit margins, that's good. and american emerges today with the cost structure and revenue picture would probably be a bit below that. >> all right, seth kaplan, we hear you, i once flew singapore airlines, if you want to try an airline, try that one. we'll see you again soon. a private company sends a thousands pounds of equipment and ice cream to the international space station. yep, private industry at its best, that's what did it and that's next.

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- ♪ o beautiful ♪ for spacious skies ♪ for amber waves of grain ♪ for purple mountain majesties ♪ ♪ above the fruited plain

- ♪ america! ♪ america! - ♪ god shed his grace on thee ♪ - ♪ on thee - ♪ and crown thy good with brotherhood ♪ - ♪ from sea to shining sea

# >> would you believe two space stories for you right now? first, spacex launched a capsule with 1,000 pounds of supplies to the international space station, the first operational missions first of a dozen plans of

resupply missions with nasa. charles, that's private enterprise in front of us, that's a good thing. charles: i love it. and a big name with this kind of stuff. you've got to love it and appreciate where they're coming from because other than that we have to ask the chinese and russians for it. stuart: he's the guy behind it. charles: extraordinary guy with a tremendous revenue. stuart: item two, tomorrow morning, a sky diver will attempt the fastest freefall in history. his nickname the guy you see, fearless felix, he'll jump from 23 miles up, hoping to break the sound barrier on the way down the stunt will be live streamed on the internet. freefall is expected to last five minutes and lori, he breaks the sound barrier with his own body-- >> how is this-- sponsored by red bull and bringing understanding and, i

just, i'm at a loss why he did. and i'm thinking of the flying with wa len da over the jersey shore. and under money to spend on it, is he bringing understanding and more interest and money like a lot? >> i. charles: i want to know how he mix money. stuart: red bull. presumably, i shouldn't say because i don't know. red bull sponsored it. that's the guy. >> and more investment in-- >> is he falling in some sort of capsule he's falling? that's got to be it. oh, he rides up in the capsule and jumps out of it, i'm told in my ear. [laughter] >> we'll be watching. stuart: tomorrow we'll have an update on that one for you. a very special moments for charles payne, it's in the highlight reel and it's next.

stuart: are you going to spend some of that fortune? charles: absolutely. i'm going to spend it all on her. >> the two of you gentlemen are the sweetest grandpas. stuart: yes. charles: i was tough on my daughter. i was tougher on her than i am on my son. she was my first kid. i'm happy for her, thrilled for her. i want to be the nice guy with the grand kids >> the grandparents relationships having two little kids myself who look forward to and enjoy their grandparents. it is really a special thing. if you have that kind of bond. it really means a lot to the parents too because to your point, it is a little tougher to be the kid. stuart: unfortunately, time is up. i'm just breaking up here. >>